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Once again I begin the hockey season by making my official NHL predictions, in order to compare them with the predictions in the formerly-self-proclaimed ‘Bible of Hockey’, The Hockey News (THN).

The predictions given in the 2004/05 edition of THN Yearbook are based on rosters as of “late July”. Since several important transactions have occurred since then, I will restrict my analysis to only the players listed by THN as being on each team’s roster. This prevents me from having any advantage due to my publishing my predictions later than THN.

My methodology for making these predictions is very simple. First, I look at how a team did last year in terms of points in the standings. Then, using Pythogorean analysis, I add or subtract some points that were probably due to luck. Then I look at transactions, both during last year and over the off-season, and estimate the effect these have for all teams. I also make some adjustments if I think a player had an off year, is young and should improve, or is old and should decline. Games missed due to injury last year are also considered.

I don’t know how THN arrives at their predictions. Suffice it to say that my predictions (based each year on about an hour’s work) have been more accurate than theirs for both years I have done them so far: 2002/03 and 2003/04. Third time’s a charm, right?

So here they are. The following table shows my predictions, THN’s predictions, and last year’s standings for reference.

There are enough differences in there to make it interesting. I think that Detroit, Vancouver and Los Angeles will be worse than THN thinks. I also think Buffalo, Colorado, Edmonton and Minnesota will be better than THN thinks. There’s one huge disagreement: I’ve got Edmonton in 7th, THN has them 13th. I don’t know what they’re smoking at THN; how could a full season of Markkanen not be better than Salo? Yet THN has them dropping 4 spots? I guess we’ll see who’s right in the end.