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The Anaheim Mighty Ducks shocked the world when they swept the Red Wings in the first round. It was certainly an upset of historic proportions. But exactly how unlikely was the sweep?

Using the head-to-head matchup predictor detailed on my website, we can calculate the expected results of a game between Anaheim and Detroit. Head-to-head, we expect Detroit to win about 62.3% of their games against Anaheim, based on their regular-season winning percentages. Basic probability theory then tells us the chance of Anaheim winning four consecutive games is a mere 2%. Conversely, the chance of Detroit winning four straight is 15%. This illustrates just how unlikely Anaheim’s sweep was.

We can refine the calculation further by considering home and road percentages. Anaheim played .647 hockey at home, and .462 on the road (not including OT losses). Detroit played .778 hockey at home, and .556 on the road (not including OT losses). Using these numbers, the league average home-and-road percentages, and the playoff schedule, we arrive with Anaheim again having a 2% chance to sweep, and Detroit having almost a 14% chance. The refinements don’t change the results very much.

In summary, if the Anaheim-Detroit series was played over again 50 times, the actual result would show up only once, on average. Now that’s unlikely.