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As a 27-year-old rookie with the Islanders in 2001/02, defenceman Dick Tarnstrom recorded a respectable 19 points in 62 games played. This year with the Penguins, Tarnstrom has apparently come into his own, scoring 38 points in 54 games through March 16. His points-per-game figure has therefore increased by 130% in a single year. This is quite an impressive feat. Or is it?

Some of you may have already thought, “what about his playing time?” In 2001/02, Tarnstrom played 17.63 minutes per game; this year (through March 16), he’s playing 24.05 minutes per game. This is an increase of 36.4%. But this still leaves about 94% of his points-per-game increase to explain.

To understand what has happened here, we have to look at Tarnstrom’s playing time in more detail. In 2001/02, he played 14.77 even-strength minutes per game, or 916 total even-strength minutes. He scored 14 even-strength points, or .015 points per even-strength minute. This year (through March 16), Tarnstrom has played 17.20 even-strength minutes per game, or 929 total. He has recorded 15 even-strength points, or .016 points per minute. At even-strength at least, it seems Tarnstrom in exactly the same player as last year.

The real key is the power-play. In 2001/02, Tarnstrom played only 1.13 power-play minutes per game, or 70 minutes total. He scored 5 power-play points, or .071 points per minute. In Pittsburgh Tarnstrom has been a man-advantage mainstay, averaging 4.92 minutes per game when a man up, or 265 total minutes. He has scored 23 power-play points, or .087 points per minute.

So it seems we can say that Tarnstrom has improved his play with the man advantage; his points per minute has increased by 23% on the power-play. But wait; the Islanders’ power-play percentage was 16.3% last year, while the Penguins (with Lemieux and, until recently, Kovalev) have a 19.3% success rate through March 16 of this year. This is an 18% increase for Tarnstrom; his increased power-play production may very well be the result of playing with a better power-play. Now it is possible that Tarnstrom himself has fueled this success; but I think I’ll take Lemieux and Kovalev as they keys rather than Tarnstrom.

So what does this prove? It shows that a player who does not change appreciably in skill can appear to do so, through changes in team and playing time and role. These factors are essentially out of the player’s control, being the result of decisions by management and the coaching staff. It also demonstrates how important power-play scoring is to a defenceman’s offensive totals.

In summary, Dick Tarnstrom’s offensive output hasn’t really improved by 130% over last year. When you really look at it, it’s more like 0%. So, Islanders fans, don’t be bitter about losing Tarnstrom only to have him blossom with his new team; he’s actually the very same player he was last year, just playing in different situations.