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Anti-Perseverance Copyright Iain Fyffe, 2002 Published October 27, 2002 Please visit Puckerings for more hockey stuff by me Save percentage is a good stat for evaluating goaltender performance, but we can do better. What save percentage does not measure is a goaltender’s rhythm. Some goalies face a larger number of shots in a game, and are therefore able to get into a groove, to establish their rhythm, to build momentum. Other goalies have to wait long minutes between shots, cooling down, muscles tightening, being unable to really get into the game. Think about it, what’s more difficult: being able to stay focused on the game and build a rhythm stopping shots, or facing a shots every few minutes, then waiting for another, your mind wandering and you muscles cooling down, dulling your reflexes. Fortunately, I have developed a stat that considers this. It’s called the Anti-Perseverance Index (API), and it combines save percentage and shots faced in such a way that reflects the advantage goalies facing more shots per game have. The formula is as follows: ((6 x SPct*)-SPG*) / 5.25 x 1000 Where SPct* is the goalie’s save percentage divided by the league average save percentage, and SPG* is the goalie’s shots faced per game divided by the league average shots faced per game. The league averages are used to make API figures directly comparable from year-to-year, so higher rating will not result just because save percentages are higher in a particular year, which is a common failing of many statistics. Now that we have an accurate gage of goaltender performance, let’s look at some results, for the seasons 1955/56 through 1966/67. Here are the top four goalies by year (minimum 1600 minutes in a year). 1955/56
1956/57
1957/58
1958/59
1959/60
1960/61
1961/62
1962/63
1963/64
1964/65
1965/66
1966/67
Glenn Hall may be called “Mr. Goalie”, but he should be known as “Mr. Consistency”. His API figures over these 12 years are 977, 968, 949, 949, 967, 971, 967, 972, 968, 968, 967, and 1978. He is in the top four every year, even though he leads only once. No one else in this period comes close to matching this consistency. The top seasons for these 12 years are:
All hail Jake the Snake! In this 12-year period, Jacques Plante has the top three seasons, as well as four of the top five and five of the top 11. Canadiens dominate the list, with two more spots going to Charlie Hodge. Here are the average API figures for the goalies who played eight or more of these 12 years:
The Holy Trinity of Plante, Bower and Hall soar above the rest, and there’s not a lot to separate these three. Identifying the best goalie from this era is certainly not easy, but I think the list above does a pretty fair evaluation. Please visit Puckerings for more hockey stuff by me |
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