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2002/03 Predictions
Joining the Fools

Copyright Iain Fyffe, 2002
Published October 10, 2002

Please visit Puckerings for more hockey stuff by me  

 

I have written elsewhere that predicting the future is a foolís errand.  Well, Iím going to join the fools.  I wouldnít normally do so, but this year Iíll go on record with my predictions for the upcoming NHL season.  But Iím doing it with a twist, or at least a purpose.  The purpose is directly compare my predictions with another set of predictions, namely that of The Hockey News Yearbook (THN).

How do I expect Iíll do competing against ďThe Bible of HockeyĒ, as they call themselves (itís right on the cover!)?  Well, Iím hoping to do a bit better, but Iíll probably do just about equal in terms of predicting the order of finish.  I have written elsewhere (see: Prognosticate This!) that simply predicting all teams will finish exactly as they did the previous year is just as good as THN has been in recent years.  Therefore, any more-accurate-then-usual predictions will likely be the result of flukes, and will even out over time.

But I will play one hunch.  If you look at the predictions below, youíll se my predictions total a change of 47 placements from last year.  That is, if I predict a team at #4, and they were #7 last year, thatís a difference of 3 placements.  Only the absolute value is used.  THN has a change of 68 placements.  I believe THN may be overpredicting, meaning theyíre trying so hard to see change that they may see it even when it is not there.  So Iím hoping my predictions will be a little more accurate.

The largest differences between my predictions and THN are as follows.  I have Washington as #5 in the East, while THN has them #2.  I have Carolina at #10 in the East, THN has them #7.  Finally, I have Edmonton at #9 in the West, while the THN has them at #6.  All of these are differences of 3 placements.

Finally, I will discuss theses predictions after the season is over.  That is something that THN never has to do, explain when their predictions are wrong.  They simply whip up a new batch of predictions for next season.  I am going to be accountable for my predictions.  Just remember that I do not expect to do well, because predicting the future is a foolish thing to do. 

The standings of each conference below are based solely on points.  The stupid 1-2-3 seeding of division winners is ignored.

Eastern Conferenc

 

Prediction

THN

2001/02 Result

1.

Philadelphia

Philadelphia

Boston

2.

Toronto

Washington

Toronto

3.

New Jersey

Toronto

Philadelphia

4.

Ottawa

New Jersey

NY Islanders

5.

Washington

Ottawa

New Jersey

6.

NY Islanders

NY Islanders

Ottawa

7.

Boston

Carolina

Carolina

8.

Montreal

NY Rangers

Montreal

9.

NY Rangers

Boston

Washington

10.

Carolina

Montreal

Buffalo

11.

Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh

NY Rangers

12.

Buffalo

Tampa Bay

Pittsburgh

13.

Tampa Bay

Buffalo

Tampa Bay

14.

Florida

Florida

Florida

15.

Atlanta

Atlanta

Atlanta

Western Conference

 

Prediction

THN

2001/02 Result

1.

Detroit

Colorado

Detroit

2.

Colorado

Detroit

Colorado

3.

San Jose

San Jose

San Jose

4.

Dallas

Dallas

St. Louis

5.

St. Louis

Vancouver

Chicago

6.

Vancouver

Edmonton

Phoenix

7.

Los Angeles

St. Louis

Los Angeles

8.

Phoenix

Los Angeles

Vancouver

9.

Edmonton

Phoenix

Edmonton

10.

Calgary

Anaheim

Dallas

11.

Chicago

Chicago

Calgary

12.

Anaheim

Calgary

Minnesota

13.

Minnesota

Columbus

Anaheim

14.

Nashville

Minnesota

Nashville

15.

Columbus

Nashville

Columbus

 Please visit Puckerings for more hockey stuff by me

 

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